Phase 1 of the Scholz Crisis as a protracted financial unraveling, not a flash-crash event, then yes: it would logically extend from April through September 2025. That aligns better with the historical tempo of past systemic meltdowns (e.g., 2008), where shock → panic → liquidity crunch → recession unfolds over months.
Let’s revise the scenario’s pacing accordingly:
✅ Revised Phase 1: Financial Meltdown (April–September 2025)
Status as of May 1: We are in the early-middle of Phase 1, not the end.
Key symptoms to continue tracking through September:
Markets: Sustained volatility, rolling crashes across sectors, failure to recover despite stimulus
Banks & Credit: Delayed ripple effects like shadow banking exposure, credit tightening, sovereign debt issues
Cyber/Infrastructure: Rolling infrastructure failures, possibly cascading (e.g., grid + food logistics + finance)
Flight to Safety: Gold, Bitcoin, and USD spikes indicate lack of trust in traditional systems
🔜 Phase 2 now delayed: Social Unrest & Humanitarian Crisis (October–December 2025)
Given this corrected pacing, mass protests, global food crises, and overwhelmed humanitarian networks would realistically peak in Q4, not Q2.
🔮 Phase 3: Regionalization & Resource Wars (January–April 2026)
Geopolitical fallout will follow once economic foundations have thoroughly eroded and nationalist policies take root.
🌐 Phase 4: “The New Normal” (Mid-2026 and beyond)
Less of a destination and more a mutating equilibrium — decentralized systems, barter economies, regional spheres of influence.
Summary Update:
We're not in Phase 2 yet. April 2025 was the ignition point, and Phase 1 will burn through the summer, with likely escalations post-G20, BRICS, and IMF meetings. Indicators like inverted yield curves, corporate downgrades, and food inflation will mark the deepening crisis.
Gore Vidal’s literary philosophy— “All fiction is by definition conservative,” ripples across the canon. 💭 What Did Vidal Mean? When Vidal said fiction is "by definition conservative," he wasn’t exactly talking about political conservatism , though he enjoyed rattling those cages. He meant that fiction as a form tends to uphold structure, narrative closure, and the illusion of coherence in a world that is often chaotic, contradictory, and absurd. Here's how: Narrative Structure = Order : Most fiction—especially the traditional novel—follows a pattern: introduction, rising action, climax, resolution. Even chaos is carefully organized. That very act of imposing form is a conservative gesture, Vidal thought, because it tames life into something digestible. Closure = Consolation : Fiction usually ends with a resolution (even tragic ones). That’s comforting. It’s neat. It implies that problems can be solved, characters understood, and meaning found. Life isn’t lik...
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