📍Phase 1: Financial Meltdown now spans January to September 2025.
That shifts everything forward by four months, meaning Phase 2 (Social Unrest) would start in October, not May. Let's re-situate the timeline accordingly and reassess based on real-world data:

🧭 Updated Scholz Crisis Timeline

PhaseNameDuration (Adjusted)Status
1Financial MeltdownJan–Sep 2025✅ In Progress (began in April)
2Social Unrest & Humanitarian CrisisOct 2025–Jan 2026🔜 Not Yet
3Regionalization & Resource WarsFeb–May 2026🔜 Not Yet
4The New NormalJune 2026 onward🌀 Speculative

📉 Phase 1 (Now Jan–Sep 2025): Where Are We?

Markets:
✔ April 2–4: $5–6.6 trillion wiped off U.S. markets after Trump tariffs announcement.
✔ Volatility spikes: VIX rose to 38 in mid-April—highest since March 2020.
✖ No January–March crash (early Q1 mostly stable). Therefore, April marks the true start.

Banking:
✔ Bond funds drained in the UK; banks reprice credit risk.
✔ Fed intervention: Temporary liquidity injections to calm short-term markets.

Infrastructure & Supply Chains:
✔ April 28: Grid failure across Iberia + SW France.
✖ No confirmed ransomware yet, but suspected cyber cause.
✖ No systemic supply chain breakdown yet (though shipping rates rising).

Conclusion for Phase 1:
⚠ It began in April, and we’re now in Month 2 of 6 for the adjusted timeline. Conditions are worsening, but the meltdown hasn’t peaked.

🔮 Implications of the Adjustment

  • If Phase 1 continues through September, we may see:

    • Credit crunches in midsummer

    • First major bank collapse or liquidity seizure by July

    • Global economic downgrade (e.g., IMF, Moody’s) in late Q3

  • Phase 2’s humanitarian crisis now aligns with the northern winter, making shortages and unrest worse, especially in regions like South Asia, West Africa, and Latin America.

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